Last Sunday, the Global Youth Festival was held at the Seoul History Museum near Gwanghwamun. Attending the festival were about a dozen representatives from various nations, introducing their cultures and customs. On one corner was the booth for France and Germany, along with two of the three Baltic nations, Lithuania and Latvia.
The Balkan nation of Slovenia was also represented. Slovenia, until a couple of decades ago, had been part of an arbitrary group of states that was created as Yugoslavia. After the fall of the Soviet Union, Yugoslavia soon broke up into Croatia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Serbia, Northern Macedonia, Montenegro and Slovenia. After years of wars within the Balkans, they have been relatively quiet. Relative, that is, compared to their neighbour, Ukraine.
It has already been a year since Russia invaded Ukraine. But Russia and Ukraine already have been fighting each other for a long time. Their shared history goes back a thousand years when Russia and Ukraine used to be a single country called the Kievan Rus. But after the Mongol invasion, the Kievan Rus broke up and only the northern part became what is now Russia. After several centuries of not being able to make their own country, Ukraine finally established itself in the 19th century, but was soon invaded by Russia, which wanted Ukraine for itself. Especially after the communist revolution, when Russia became the Soviet Union, Russia fought and took over Ukraine. Ukraine only gained its own independence recently after the fall of the Soviet Union, along with the Balkan states like Lithuania and Latvia.
Russia’s persistent interest in Ukraine has traditionally been two major things: its rich fields that provided food, and its access to the sea, something which cold and frozen Siberian Russia never had. But recently, another reason appeared for Russia to feel anxious about Ukraine. When the Soviet Union fell, the Balkan states immediately joined both the EU and the Soviet Union’s old enemy from the Cold War, NATO - the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, which is a military alliance between the United States and Europe. Russia was weak right after the fall of the USSR and couldn’t object to having NATO armies right in front of their borders. But now, Russia is stronger, and they couldn’t sit by and watch Ukraine also join NATO. And for almost two years, Ukraine is still fighting Russia.
At the festival, the booth for Lithuania and Latvia was relaxed and pleasant. They handed out chocolates, and cut out handprints with funny messages. They were mainly promoting tourism to the Baltic states, and the Ambassador of Lithuania, Ricardas Slepavicius, greeted people with an amicable handshake. But on the other side, the Ukrainian Ambassador, Dmytro Ponomarenko, stood to the side, anxiously staring at his phone. He looked worried, unable to focus on the festival, where everyone else seemed to be enjoying themselves. It was only twenty years ago that the Balkan states joined NATO. And having missed that window of opportunity, Mr Ponomarenko is hanging on in anxiety and concern. Because of the Israel-Hamas war, the limelight of the world has shifted away from Ukraine.
Currently, the Ukraine situation is not improving noticeably.
Following the Wagner mutiny, where a group of mercenaries hired by the Russian government revolted and attempted to march on Moscow, the tide of the war has been favorable to Ukraine. But it doesn’t mean that the war has completely turned, nor has Ukraine even been successful in removing Russian troops from its land. In eastern Ukraine, Russian forces went from retreating back to attacking. Eastern Ukraine has traditionally been more friendlier with Russia, and early in the war an election in the eastern Ukrainian province of Donetsk voted to join Russia. While the vote was suspicious, since the Russian forces were occupying it when it happened, Russia still holds the results to support the reason for their invasion.
Ukraine is looking for allies. But its allies already seem to be tired of helping. Recently Ukrainian President Zelensky’s visit to the US didn’t go well, as his request to address the Congress was denied. While Russia was successful in forming an alliance with North Korea. North Korea, despite being banned from trading with other countries, sent more than 1000 containers to Russia. These are suspected to be arms weapons for aid in the Russian and Ukraine war.
But not all hope of allies is lost. The US president Biden addressed the United Nations, saying “Russia believes that the world will grow weary and allow it to brutalize Ukraine without consequences.” Even China is cautious of supporting Russia, officially stating that “all countries deserve respect for their sovereignty and territorial integrity” and that “support should be given to all efforts that are conducive to peacefully resolving the crisis.”
The Ukraine booth had a wide spread where the attendants wrote uplifting messages. I left a message of my own:
“Be strong and don’t lose hope.”
By Justin
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